Serbia's opposition wins election after 14 years of Vucic rule

The Student List secured a historic victory in Sunday's election, ending 14 years of political dominance by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party. The result marks a sharp break from the previous administration's foreign policy approach, though experts caution that changes will occur slowly.

Vucic led the country for over a decade, maintaining a balancing act between Western and Eastern powers. His tenure was defined by a refusal to join European Union sanctions against Russia while simultaneously allowing indirect arms supplies to Ukraine. The opposition movement gained momentum through mass protests, during which Vucic accused Croatia of organizing a color revolution.

The new government faces immediate internal challenges before addressing regional relations. Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that domestic cleanup will take priority. He noted that the previous system captured democratic institutions and that the judiciary, police, and media sectors require attention before Serbia can repair ties with neighbors like Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro.

Relations with Croatia remain strained due to ideological clashes between the former ruling party and Croatia's current government. Popov described the previous dynamic as one where both sides produced internal and external enemies. However, he expressed hope that a new government led by civic experts will work to stabilize the region and revive Serbia's path toward European Union membership.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a foreign policy lecturer at King's College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform less than domestic policy. He explained that many structural elements of Serbia's international posture will remain intact. Russian influence will weaken as media control shifts, but Belgrade is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance toward Moscow immediately.

Serbia still relies on Russia for preferential gas prices and faces an unresolved dispute over Kosovo. Vuksanovic asserted that the new government will not join EU sanctions against Moscow. The country will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, though questions remain regarding the continued delivery of ammunition to Ukraine.

Serbia's close partnership with Israel, marked by arms trade and technology exchanges, will also face scrutiny. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said the new administration will re-examine contracts for Serbian ammunition exports and Israeli surveillance equipment. He noted that the policy of sitting on multiple geopolitical chairs will be re-evaluated, with a likely strengthening of ties with the European Union.