Three Haredi Seats and Bennett's Move May Force Israel's Next Coalition

Israel faces a fragile path to forming a government as elections loom, with political insiders pointing to a small Haredi faction and a former prime minister as the potential deciding factors. Assessments within the political establishment indicate that Agudat Yisrael, a three-MK group led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, may support an opposition-led cabinet in exchange for specific financial agreements. This move could stabilize a government that otherwise relies on the backing of Arab parties.

The Knesset requires 61 seats for a majority, a threshold neither major bloc is guaranteed to reach. If the numbers fail to align, the country risks returning to the polls for another election. Political figures are currently weighing these outcomes in the final hours before voting begins. The proposed deal with Agudat Yisrael does not eliminate the need for Arab party votes, but it provides an additional layer of support that could tip the balance.

Goldknopf's faction has explored this cooperation since August, according to reports from Maariv. The talks emerged during internal friction within United Torah Judaism. Disagreements centered on the Haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the current coalition's behavior, while the rival Degel Hatorah faction voiced a lack of confidence in Netanyahu's leadership. Rabbi Dov Lando further complicated the dynamic by expressing reservations about maintaining commitments to the Likud-led bloc.

Despite these internal shifts, Goldknopf faces resistance from his own base. His voters are largely aligned with the Right. Political assessments suggest that any visible support for a change bloc government could push supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This risk creates a calculation for Goldknopf as he considers how to leverage his three seats to secure budgetary concessions.

Attention has also turned to Naftali Bennett, who may influence the government's structure if neither bloc achieves a clear majority. One scenario involves Bennett joining a Netanyahu-led government if no side reaches the 61-seat mark. While viewed as a remote possibility, some analysts believe Bennett is the only change bloc leader with the right-wing background to make such a move. His current party composition, however, would complicate a shift in allegiance.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential crossover candidate, given his history of serving as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. Current assessments, however, place Liberman far from such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. These scenarios remain in the realm of political assessment rather than formal agreement, with the final balance of power yet to be determined by the vote.