Likud Divided on Election Odds as Turnout Campaigns Intensify

Israelis are scheduled to cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in a vote that will determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government completes its full term. Inside the ruling Likud party, members are sharply divided over their chances of victory. One party source stated that some leaders feel confident in their prospects, while others fear a strong turnout among voters who oppose Netanyahu.

The optimism among Likud members stems largely from internal forecasts by Shlomo Filber, who manages the party’s polling. The source described the internal mood as polarized, noting, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other." The date for the election allows Netanyahu’s administration to serve out the remainder of its term without an early departure.

A primary source of anxiety for Likud officials is the activity of various organizations and nonprofits. Party sources claim these groups are directing large sums of money toward a get-out-the-vote campaign for the opposing camp. This effort reportedly ran throughout the election period without direct funding from the rival political parties. The operations included social media ads, physical signage, field events, transportation for Arab voters, and initiatives to bring Israelis living abroad home to vote.

One Likud insider labeled this activity "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The source argued that these groups provide anti-Netanyahu parties with a support network that operates outside standard party financing rules. However, the sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts they cited or for the claim that the activity was illegal. Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing heavily on campaign video limits and public resource usage while paying less attention to the work of these organizations.

Despite the restrictions on gathering information from polling stations, Likud is preparing a major ground operation for Election Day. The party is focusing its efforts on preventing right-wing votes from drifting to smaller political slates. In related maneuvering, Likud attempted to convince Brigadier General (retired) Ofer Winter to drop out of the race. Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade, leads the People of Israel party. The effort included discussions involving Rabbi Eli Sadan, who subsequently issued a statement supporting Winter.

Likud is also engaging with other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. During those discussions, the parties considered legislation that would allow the Ahi party to name a deputy minister. A survey published shortly before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters had not yet decided how they would vote.

The election outcome will hinge on whether these turnout campaigns can shift the undecided majority. Likud’s strategy relies on consolidating the right-wing vote and neutralizing the impact of the nonprofit spending. The results will determine the next phase of Israel’s political leadership.